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Forecasting Techniques in Business and Economics

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Book Code: 1111017442349

L. N. Dahiya

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ABOUT THE BOOK

Forecasting Techniques in Business and Economics is an outgrowth of author's experience of teaching the subject of Quantitative Techniques to M.Phil. (Commerce) students for the last several years, and is an attempt to meet some of the problems which were part of that experience. The book is meant to cater to the needs of under-graduate and post-graduate students of Commerce, Economics, Management, Operations Research, Production Engineering and also the busy executives, managers and administrators, who look for ready solution of day-to-day problems of forecasting in their planning decisions.

The most striking feature of the book is its versatility. In one handy volume, the author has condensed the subject matter to meet the requirement of vast crosssection of reading population. The contents of the book have been divided into four different parts. The book is unique in the sense that it has been written in a simple and lucid style. The text material is so self-explanatory that even the average student can easily follow it without much stress and strain. The treatment of the subject is nonmathematical and even difficult methods have been discussed logically and in a very simple manner. Besides useful theory, the book contains solved illustrations. It is hoped that the book will be found quite useful by its readers.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Prof. L.N.Dahiya was born in rural Haryana, India, in a farming family in 1945. After having earned master degrees in Economics and Commerce, Ph.D (Eco.), and Diploma in
French, he taught and conducted research for about 40 years at three universities viz., Kurukshetra University, University of Delhi and M.D. University, Rohtak, till his superannuation in 2005. Prof .Dahiya is an academician – administrator of merit. He supervised 12 Ph.D and 30 M.Phil scholars, completed nine research reports, published 50 research papers in leading journals and authored three outstanding books.

Besides teaching and research accomplishments, Prof. Dahiya held with distinction a number of administrative positions such as Head and Dean, Faculty of Commerce, Registrar, Pro Vice-Chancellor and Vice-Chancellor at M.D. University, Rohtak. As senior Professor, he remained associated with number of apex academic bodies and institutions including the UGC, ICSSR, AICTE, UPSC, several state public service commissions and universities. He has the distinction of holding coveted position of Chairman, NAAC Peer Teams, Bangalore, more than 80 times, UGC Visiting Fellow at G.J. University of Science and Technology, Hisar, Director of KAIM Business School, and the National President of Indian Commerce Association in 1992-93. Besides that he travelled extensively in India, he also acquired an enormous exposure at international level through his visits to 20 countries across the globe for academic pursuits. He wrote this book in 1988, while serving as Reader (Associate Professor) in the Department of Commerce, M.D.
University, Rohtak.

Prof. Dahiya, even at the ripe age of 75 plus, is always keen to participate and to give his best to the cause of higher education and environment in the country.

CONTENTS

Acknowledgements .......................................................................... 9

Foreword ........................................................................................ 11

Preface ........................................................................................... 13

PART ONE

1. Introduction ................................................................. 17

2. Forecasting Elements and Techniques ........................... 27

PART TWO

3. Quantitative Forecasting Techniques-I (Naive Smoothing and Decomposition Time Series Techniques) 43

4. Quantitative Forecasting Techniques-II (Explanatory and Other Techniques) ................................................. 65

PART THREE

5. Qualitative Forecasting Techniques-I (Subjective Assessment Techniques) ............................................. 107

6. Qualitative Forecasting Techniques-II (Technological Techniques) ................................................................ 119

PART FOUR

7. Managing A Forecasting System .................................. 145

References and Select Bibliography ................................ 159

Index ............................................................................... 167


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